Betting on Our Future

‍ Graphic by Mia Buchanan

‍ Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke made a highly educated wager and won around $375k on the prediction market Polymarket, betting that the US military would remove and capture Nicolás Maduro. Of course, it didn’t hurt that Van Dyke possessed classified information about the plan to abduct Venezuela’s head of state.

While Van Dyke is facing federal wire fraud charges, his case illustrates how prediction markets, in which you can wager on pretty much anything, incentivize insider trading, bribery, cheating, and corruption. After all, Van Dyke is far from alone: There have also been suspiciously timed bets and big payouts following the ouster of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and military actions against Iran.

Prediction markets are exploding: The Wall Street Journal reported that total trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi soared to $24.2 billion in April 2026, compared to $1.8 billion just a year before. Wow!

Donald Trump used to disapprove of prediction markets. But that was then. He recently posted on Truth Social that state lawmakers seeking to regulate these markets are “SCUM.” Perhaps his change of heart has to do with Don Jr.’s investment firm raising $300 million for Polymarket and Junior being a highly paid advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Not that he would ever leverage his family ties to enrich himself!

Or maybe it’s that DJT’s Truth Social is now openly marketing access to administration insider information—to its $100k per month subscribers—info a canny subscriber can cash in on bigly on prediction markets.

Trump now insists that only the federal Commodities Futures Trading Commission may regulate prediction markets. And Trump’s CFTC is way more about promoting than regulating these online casinos.

Public Citizen, Americans for Financial Reform, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the Project On Government Oversight, and Democracy Defenders Action are all backing the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, proposed by Sen. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin to ban prediction market betting on elections, government actions, sports and military actions. (You could still bet on sports through state-regulated platforms.)

Any wagers on the outcome?